مدیریت مالی هوشمند

مدیریت مالی هوشمند

سنجش اثر هوشمندسازی و توسعه اقتصاد دیجیتال بر پایداری مالی و ریسک اعتباری در شبکه بانکی ایران: یک تحلیل اقتصادسنجی سری زمانی (رویکرد ARDL)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
گروه مدیریت مالی، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
این پژوهش با هدف سنجش اثر هوشمندسازی خدمات و توسعه اقتصاد دیجیتال بر پایداری مالی و ریسک اعتباری در شبکه بانکی ایران طی دوره ۱۳۸۸ تا ۱۴۰۲ و با استفاده از داده‌های فصلی انجام شده است. تحول دیجیتال و به‌کارگیری بسترهای غیرحضوری، سامانه‌های هوشمند اعتبارسنجی و الگوریتم‌های داده‌محور، ساختار تصمیم‌گیری و مدیریت ریسک در صنعت بانکداری را دگرگون کرده است. برای تبیین الگوی پژوهش، شاخص ترکیبی تراکنش‌های الکترونیکی و زیرساخت‌های فناوری اطلاعات به‌عنوان نماینده هوشمندسازی، شاخص Z-Score به‌عنوان نماینده پایداری مالی و نسبت مطالبات غیرجاری به‌عنوان شاخص ریسک اعتباری در نظر گرفته شده و دو الگوی پژوهش با روش خودتوضیح با وقفه‌های توزیعی برآورد شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد گسترش هوشمندسازی و زیرساخت‌های اقتصاد دیجیتال در بلندمدت اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر پایداری مالی شبکه بانکی دارد و به بهبود شاخص‌های توانگری مالی انجامیده است. همچنین توسعه فناوری‌های هوشمند اعتبارسنجی اثر منفی و معنی‌دار بر نسبت مطالبات غیرجاری داشته و ریسک اعتباری را به‌طور قابل‌توجهی کاهش داده است. ضریب جمله تصحیح خطا در هر دو الگو منفی و از نظر آماری معنی‌دار است و بیانگر سرعت تعدیل مناسب نوسانات کوتاه‌مدت به سمت تعادل بلندمدت است. نتایج بر ضرورت سرمایه‌گذاری بیشتر شبکه بانکی در هوش مصنوعی و اعتبارسنجی دیجیتال برای تقویت سلامت مالی تأکید دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Assessing the Impact of Smartization and Digital Economy Development on Financial Stability and Credit Risk in Iran's Banking Network: A Time-Series Econometric Analysis (ARDL Approach)

نویسنده English

Mohammad Hossein Khaji
Department of Financial Management, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

This study aims to assess the impact of service smartization and the development of the digital economy on financial stability and credit risk within Iran's banking network, utilizing quarterly data from the Iranian years 1388 to 1402 (2009–2024). Digital transformation—along with the adoption of remote service platforms, smart credit-scoring systems, and data-driven algorithms—has revolutionized decision-making structures and risk management in the banking industry. To formulate the research model, a composite index of electronic transactions and IT infrastructure was selected as a proxy for smartization, the Z-score as a proxy for financial stability, and the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio as the indicator for credit risk; two models were then estimated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The findings indicate that the expansion of smartization and digital economy infrastructure has a significant positive long-term impact on the financial stability of the banking network, leading to improved financial soundness indicators. Furthermore, the development of smart credit-scoring technologies has had a significant negative impact on the NPL ratio, thereby substantially reducing credit risk. The error correction term coefficient in both models is negative and statistically significant, indicating an appropriate speed of adjustment from short-term fluctuations toward long-term equilibrium. The results underscore the necessity for the banking network to increase investment in artificial intelligence and digital credit scoring to strengthen financial health. Keywords:

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Banking digitalization
digital economy
financial stability
credit risk
non-performing loans
ARDL
Iranian banking network
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